Kimball Corson
07/01/2009, Moorea, French Polynesia

Me, getting caught up on my website, with decent through-put Wi-Fi after so long without it. But at $3.50 per hour, though.

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Kimball Corson
07/01/2009, Moorea, French Polynesia

Just after the storm and rain and with a long telephoto lens.

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Kim Corson
07/01/2009, Moorea, French Polynesia

Winds were strong before and after, but not during the rain from the storm.

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Kimball Corson
07/01/2009, Moorea, French Polynesia

The storm system I mentioned below also came into Moorea and Tahiti a few days after I arrived.

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Kim Corson
07/01/2009, Moorea, French Polynesia

The scenery around the anchorage is spectacular, but this place is expensive. The cost of living in French Polynesia is the second highest in the world, behind only Japan. You get little for much.

Can Government Intervene in the Market Economy Effectively?

Are government and Fed efforts to intervene in the economy and steer it in the right direction any good? Consider this very recent example, and you decide. After the tech stock collapse and the economic dip attending it, policy gurus were worried about an ensuing double dip in the economy, and in 2002 made several recommendations. One from a now Nobel Laureate then read something like this:

. . . To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble. Judging by Mr. Greenspan's remarkably cheerful recent testimony, he still thinks he can pull that off . . .

And so we got the housing bubble and we got it in spades, along with its horrific aftermath! If our better heads can do no better than this type of intervention, should we be intervening in markets or at a macro level at all? Milton Friedman believed we did not know enough to do it well and therefore we should not try. It is too complicated and as Leon Walras might have said, 'Everything is related to everything else.' Our brains are not big enough to deal with it, as Friedman did say.

Score a point here - and a big one - for Milton Friedman's side of the argument, I say.

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Kim Corson
07/01/2009, Moorea, French Polynesia

Arriving early in the morning after an 800 nm journey. Everything is ship shape for landfall.

Do Markets Work and Why it Matters?

The core tenet of Keynesians, in support of market intervention to increase aggregate demand, is that Say's law is incorrect, that is, that markets do not reach equilibria, even allowing for excess supply or demand in some or other markets as they adjust. That markets seldom, if ever, reach equilibrium was a key idea of Irving Fisher. Therefore, argued Keynes, there can be serious underemployment of people and resources and the government should intervene when that occurs to make up the short fall. That can be true, if the markets are not working properly because prices are sticky or because markets do not otherwise adjust and reach equilibrium. Many such non-functional markets may require intervention, it can be argued, but where markets are competitive, not interfered with by government, not taken advantage of by participants and prices can and do freely adjust as needed over time, Say's Law is basically correct and the predicate to Keynesian intervention by government is therefore lacking. The key issue then is basically do markets work as they should, especially the labor market and aside from oddball markets such as those involved with health care? There is not much public discussion or indeed understanding on this point, unfortunately.

That is, do markets really not work or is it just that we do not like the results they produce and we want to intervene and change them?

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Kim Corson
06/28/2009, Mid Pacific

The Price of Boat Stuff

I was looking thru a West Marine catalog on board and was shocked by the prices . . . as always. I want to convey the sense of that shock to you. So I took a picture of some, just some of the essential gear for ocean voyaging in a 40 foot sailboat. The price of the gear in the photograph, to include the one Lewmar two speed, self-tailing winch at the top (two minimum this size are needed), is well over $4,300US. The gear on the cockpit cushion alone - two snatch blocks, a Winchard double length tether, three Lewmar winch handles, and a turnbuckle assembly to connect my inner forestay to my boat's Sampson post -- hardly anything at all -- is well over $1,200US. Just one single fitted cockpit cushion (of four) can run $700. Shocking, huh? Makes you try hard not to loose stuff, and not to buy any of it in Tahiti where the already absurd US prices are double or more. Perhaps this recession should continue until the prices of boat and other things become more reasonable. Just a thought.


Now this brings me current, at last!

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Kim Corson
06/28/2009, Mid Pacific

Yours Truly Updated

(Repeated because earlier such posting is so far back and out of order many might otherwise miss it [Oh, loss, you say . . .])

(I just arrived in Cook´s Bay at the island of Moorea, right next to Tahiti, after single handing some 750 to 800 nautical miles from the Marquesas down through the Tuamotu or Dangerous Archipeligo to the French Polynesian windward isle of Moorea. More, I have Hotspot Wi-Fi at five bar signal strength on my boat where it is presently anchored and so have been able to catch up on my website, although I am badly behind on commentary. However, I have much to write and also to read about.)

My now most typical daily appearance consists of:

-- me,

-- a modest Polynesian beads and shark spine necklace,

-- a 2G full iPod shuffle, clipped to my shirt, with top of the line Etymotic Research earplugs. (Sonically, all iPods need all the help they can get. I sometimes use JBL Reference One earbuds without the fuzzy covers, for something less intrusive but still good enough). The music is everything from light classical thru Shostakovich string quartets, from the Buena Vista Social Club to French and Spanish songs, from Miles Davis to Andean pan flute dances and from the Rolling Stones and Led Zeppelin to some rave dance mixes - try all that shuffled. That will really shift your gears!

-- my new Polynesian tattoo with the whale, shark, Polynesian sea cross and Tiki motifs (although it is upside down and incompletely shown in this photograph; only the whale and Polynesian Cross* motifs appear). My tattoo comes after successfully telling my children for years never to get tattooed. The best I can reply is that I like Polynesian tattoos, but find too many American tattoos are ghoulish, melodramatic or combat/warrior inspired. To me, they are corny and of compromised aesthetics, like Elvis paintings on black velvet.

-- my second oldest, most scruffy and most faded Greek fisherman's cap (it is has real "panache" and you can't buy that),

-- a typical sleeveless shirt,

-- Israeli commando shorts,

-- a sailor's webbing cinch belt, and

-- various footwear, depending on the circumstances.

I am verily an updated "old salt," with many nautical miles under my keel and accumulating more rapidly. And yes, those are dishes and a funnel piled in the sink to my right waiting to be washed. "Mañana" is the operative word here and it does not mean tomorrow. It means simply not today, with nothing else necessarily implied, contrary to popular belief and most Spanish dictionaries. Life is indeed good.



*The Polynesia Cross is not a Christian cross equivalent, although Polynesians prefer it and sometimes use it so in lieu that cross, in part to spite missionaries who earlier destroyed many artifacts of the Polynesian religions. Instead, it is a historical pictogram of where the Polynesians came from in 'crossing the sea' to arrive at the Marquesas. The "arms" of the motif signify Hawaii, Easter Island, Samoa and Malaysia.

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Kim Corson
06/28/2009, The Tuamatu Archipelago

The Tuamatu or Dangerous Archipelago (Written while underway)

As it is called. It is in French Polynesia, between the Marquesas and Tahiti. I am sailing through it just now. The first atoll on entering is the Takaroa atoll and it is about 15 miles long and five, wide. This photograph is taken six miles away from the Takaroa atoll on its length. You can't see a thing and that is the point. If you were three miles away, your view would largely be the same. If you were close enough to be slammed into the submerged reef surrounding the atoll, you might then be able to see on its north shore, the ". . . skeletal wreck of the iron sailing ship County of Roxburgh rusting on the beach . . . [and] at least three other smaller wrecks lying around. . . ." (Margo Cook, Charlie's Charts of Polynesia) Reefs extend out from the land a long way, somes miles. Assuming you could timely see the atoll and avoid hitting its reef which is not really visable, going in and getting through the pass to the interior lagoon is itself problematic. During heavy winds, vessels have been pinned to an old wharf there by the current for a much as three days, according to Cook. Atolls, and sailing in, out and among them are dicey business.

I will be sailing right past the Rangiroa atoll where I would very much like to stop and go into its lagoon and anchor, before going on to Tahiti. Whether I will do so depends on several questions. Would I easily arrive there in daylight? From my calculations, the answer is yes. Will the winds be too high to anchor comfortably, with a lee shore right next to me? Winds are forecast to be continuing medium (15 to 25 knots), a bit high, but forecasts are often not correct. Will there be much swell at the entrance pass, causing breaking waves and currents there? I am unsure without looking, but the swell is largely coming from the southeast just now, and the pass is on the north side of Rangiroa. Finally, can I catch a slack tide at the pass? (a time when the water stops going in or stops going out and changes direction). This is important because a lot of water rushes in and out of the lagoon at the pass with the tides, creating very strong currents. Indications are I can time my arrival when the tide is close to slack and is just going to start a high tide, which is good.

We will just have to see. The wind and weather concern me most. I have a Tahiti or Moorea landfall planned as well, as backups.

P.S.
I just downloaded the grib update weather file by Marine SSB radio from NOAA, covering the next four days, and the winds are expected to increase even more strongly with a low-pressure system headed toward the Archipelago. While I am persuaded I can get into the atoll and get well anchored in time, I am sure I do not want to be there when the low pressure system comes through, with its attending heavier winds and larger swell. Too, the lagoon is many miles across and a large fetch (wind waves) can be built up with a heavy wind and such distance inside the lagoon. Also, the weather is deteriorating before my eyes. I am going to pass. It is better to be at sea than anchored unprotected off a lee shore in such weather. However, I will be in Moorea or Tahiti in a couple of days, which are not forecast to be affected much when the system comes through. Better safe than sorry. Too, as a solo sailor, it is impossible for me to insure my boat.

P.P.S
LATER: Moorea and Tahiti both got hit hard by the same storm as well, but Cook's Bay is quite protected, although I am anchored in 60 feet of water there and have 260 feet of all chain rode out, I also keep my batteries up to where I can start my engine at any time.

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Kimball Corson
06/28/2009, Hiva Oa, Marquesas

By the forbidding bay and from which the flower fell.

So finishes my views of Hiva Oa. Now, on to Moorea, next to Tahiti, but I have to sail there first.

On Leaving Hiva Oa and the Marquesas

My law school classmate of 40 years ago and good friend, Mike Ridberg, left when his time ran out. He flew from Hiva Oa to Tahiti and from there to LAX. The boat is definitely larger and less cluttered since Mike left, but it is also more emotionally vacant, too. But now I have some serious cleaning to do. Guests should come for shorter stints so the boat won't get so dirty since neither of us want to clean when we can talk or go somewhere instead. It was good fun, but it is also good to get my old rhythms and routines back and restore some order. I am now reading and writing again. But getting dependable broadband internet has proved impossible so I am writing this and other stuff in advance, hoping to find good Wi-Fi ahead. Tahiti or Moorea, perhaps.

I had a plan for a tour guide who also drives a taxi. Instead of a geographic tour of Hiva Oa, I was going to ask her to give me a physical tour of the Atuona town area, including Guagain's tomb and then have a long lunch with me and give me an intellectual, cultural, historical, contemporary thought tour. Her English and experience are up to it, I believe. I wanted to know what Islanders think now about various things. How they see the world. It would have been a different approach, and I would have paid her well for it. Well, since this thought occurred to me and I explained it to her, the guide charged me $1000 CPF (about $10US in Polynesian Franks) taxi fare from town when everyone else and her previously have charged everyone $500 CPF. (Maybe she did not like my idea!) I told her that I could not deal with her further and would walk or hire someone else instead. She said the standard fare is $500 CPF for the driver plus $500 CPF for the car. I should have said, "I´ll just take the car." Such nonsense.

There are definite aspects I and other cruisers do not like about Hiva Oa. I think the locals are the least friendly and most jaded of the islanders in the Marquesas. They sit at home much of the time watching US cable programming and are resentful of us and the French, I am told. The French give them low interest, long-term loans for cars and cable TV systems. Stores close for two and a half hours for lunch. Having made ourselves unhappy with materialism and greed, we are hard at work trying to make the rest of the world unhappy as well. The French have taught the Hiva Oans to be arrogant or indifferent and we have taught them greed and envy. It's an ongoing lesson on how to corrupt a paradise. Cruisers complain that locals won't give them a lift when they are hitchhiking and carrying heavy groceries a mile or so back to their boats from town. I think that is largely true, but I have been lucky. The Gendarmerie (pronounced Jon Dom, the Port Captain, customs official equivalent) could care less about island check-ins and does not do his job (He was supposed to get a written declaration from me about Mike's departure, but did not bother, even when I explained and offered to do one), the tourist offices are always closed from what I have seen, there is no internet anywhere that works, although sometimes I get a signal from Hotspot, a pricey, private Wi-Fi for cruisers on their boats, which I might try. I watched a guy buy a card to use the one internet computer in town in the Post Office. Neither he nor the administrator who sold him the card could get the card and machine to work and she still refused him a refund.

Most cruisers have left now, some with unpleasant things to say about Hiva Oa. Hiva Oa does seem to have many more people problems than Ua Pou or Nuku Hiva, both of which are more pleasant and equally beautiful places, but I hear that Fiji is worse. Instead of the French being there, it is a commercial class of Indians from India who were originally indentured servants and who have climb up the economic ladder - too well some Polynesian Fijians contend. Only four boats are left here in Hiva Oa. Aside from the roiled human condition that make too many behave like monkeys, this is a beautiful island from what I have seen and, too, most islanders have certainly been friendly and helpful to me, a few exceptionally so.

Mike, on the other hand likes Hiva Oa relative more because at the last island, Ua Pou, he fell victim to the "bag incident" which stuck mightily in his craw, possibly for life, but certainly for the rest of our time together. It happened this way. On Ua Pou, we both went into a grocery store to get a coke and a snack at mid-day. At the register, I paid and then asked for a bag for my items and was directed to a close stack of nice plastic bags with a picture of a whale and some writing on each. I grabbed one, put my stuff in it and left. The gal at the register then charged Mike, who was right behind me, a dollar for one of the bags. Mike got madder the more he thought about it. That I got mine free, only might have meant Mike was charged for mine because I grabbed mine after I paid and was leaving. However, in all fairness, I am not sure Mike realized the bag charge might have been for a charitable cause, like send a whale to college, or some such. He couldn't see past the $1 charge. It rankled him mightily. He took the bag home with him. He'll probably keep it for life.

A few words on the Marquesas island names and how to remember them: Nuku Hiva can be remembered by the phrase "nuclear upheaval." Hiva Oa, by the sentence "Heave her over." Fatu Hiva, by the sentence, "She's too fat to heave her." And Ua Pou by the query, "Why poo?" Great pneumonic devices, even if they are not too politically correct. They lead to the correct pronunciations, too.

I have firmed up my broad plans, after studying the anchorages and the pro and cons of all eastern and southern South Pacific ports of call. I need to arrive in New Zealand by late November to be out of the South Pacific cyclone (a southern hemisphere hurricane) area by then and into the warming southern waters. Between now and then, I plan to visit Avatoru, Rangiroa, in the Tuamotu or Danerous Archipelago (as it is sometimes called and where I am headed next; one must navigate the reef systems carefully), Moorea, Tahiti, Huahine, Raiatea, Bora Bora, Suvarov Island in the Cook Islands (Tom Neale's former home), Pago Pago in American Somoa (a little piece of the USA), Apia on Upolu in Western Somoa, the Vavau group of islands in Tonga and Suva and other cities/islands in Fiji, before heading south to New Zealand where I will probably spend about six months.

I reject many anchorages in the South Pacific because they are overcrowded with all kinds of boats and ships, too exposed to strong winds near reefs or that have poor anchor holding ground below the water. These are trouble waiting to happen to your boat. Sailing between close atoll reefs is safer. Buying maps and guides for the areas ahead from New Zealand on now becomes a top priority, as they are otherwise hard to come by. New Zealand is well stocked with boating stuff.

My progress in the galley (kitchen, to land lubbers) is truly astounding. While I do now wash dishes, it has not yet occurred to me to put them away, except when preparing to sail. Now, I actually warm some things on the stove, too. Nothing fancy, like rice, but a can of this or that from time to time, but only as really necessary. I found a new European breakfast cereal and damned if it doesn't look and taste exactly like a certain US fitness cereal Mike and I called Twigs and Branches. I couldn't believe it. It is relatively cheap, too. Only $420 CPF a box, instead of $760 CPF, like for Fruit Loops. I wonder why. I will do one last provisioning trip here in Hiva Oa and then be ready to go after hauling fuel.

I contacted my Polynesian islands agent representative today about getting water and diesel brought to the boat shortly and she said it could not be done. The islanders on Hiva Oa don't want to do the work. She said they are too lazy. I asked too in the dock convenience store why no beer was sold there and a laborer from a nearby job site spoke up and said that if beer were sold there, workers would all drink beer and not work. So the French outlaw beer sales in certain areas and at certain times. The bottom line is I have to haul to the boat in my dinghy nine jerry cans of diesel (@ $2.35US a gallon, with my purchased tax exemption -- reasonable) and one of gas (@ $5.00US per gallon, not includable in my exemption -- daffy) . . . and then haul beer from town, too! Whoopee! That, the hiking, sight seeing and the sailing keep me fit enough.

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Kim Corson
06/28/2009, Hiva Oa, Marquesas

Notice, if you can see it, the truly marvelous texture of this flower. It is astounding to me. And it is strong, too.

It Appears We Are All Largely Getting it Backwards

I have been wrestling with an idea that has been bothering me. No one credible seriously argues that market mechanisms are flawed in regard to how they seek sustainable equilibria or allocate recourses, except perhaps where substantial externalities are involved. We may not like the allocations or the efforts made by markets to stabilize or where they seek to stabilize. Often, then, we interfere with their operation, just as we interfere with markets whenever we can to gain an advantage or seek a sought after policy result.

In the current great recession, markets are clearly attempting to recover from the results of those who have engaged in excesses within those markets and brought us to our present state. The question then is why not let those markets adjust? The answer is not easy. Mostly, though, it is we do not like the adjustments called for by markets and therefore we interfere in their operations as much as we can to get the results we want. Often the results sought from interference are not sustainable and the market forces continue to press for the adjustments required. There is a strong tendency for market forces to prevail in the long run. If we were to accept that and understand it, the argument becomes, why interfere in the first place? Why not develop aids to needed market adjustments, just as an industry of facilitators has grown up to aid and stream line residential foreclosures. Bad subprime and prime loans are being worked out by foreclosure and the progress is good but by no means complete.

The real reason we do not want markets to adjust as they should and probably eventually will is we don't like the results. In the present economy, those include lower wages, salaries and prices to make us more competitive and any equilibrium sustainable. We have seen a massive shift of supply capability to overseas markets, resulting in lost jobs and work in the USA to the point where the problem has become serious. Yet, in the absence of recession, our wages and salaries and the prices of our goods remain too high because we think that is what we should want, but just not have the work and jobs go overseas. Now, how silly is that?

This argument says let large companies fail when they should, let deflation occur as needed, let wages and salaries drop, let work and jobs come back to the US and let us gain a new competitive foothold in world markets that we have earlier largely lost. Massive government interference in these market endeavors is only going to temporarily forestall the results that the market forces press for, so why delay the adjustments. Indeed, why not aid them. I think our Government is getting it precisely backwards and at great expense.

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Kim Corson
06/28/2009, Hiva Oa, Marquesas

As in the photograph, I found the Tourist Information Center was virtually always closed.

Is a Recovery at Hand?

In a word, no. Why? Because --

Unemployment is high and rising
Underemployment is huge
Interest rates are rising in too many areas
Housing prices are little changed of late and need to drop more
Foreclosures are also still rising
Credit card debt is still a major problem
Commercial and prime loans remain big problem areas
Government bond sales are becoming more difficult
Problems in banking industry are not close to resolved
Consumer spending is supported by government handouts
Retail sales are still dragging and are little improved
Pension funds are in big trouble, sitting on huge losses
World trade is continuing to contract substantially
World growth expected to contract almost 3% this year
Gold prices are high and rising
Government debt is huge and growing
Longer run prospects for the dollar are poor and decline is expected
Longer run inflation is anticipated
The commodity price rally has failed and prospects are poor
Oil prices have risen and are expected to rise further
Non-residential investment is falling
Flurry of insider stock selling
Commercial Paper outstanding is dropping
Rising savings reflect hoarding and an otherwise drop in spending
Banks are not expanding loans, but are cutting some credit lines
There is no clear engine for growth or recovery on the horizon

Understand that a quick or strong recovery in this environment simply is not going to happen. Period.

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Kim Corson
06/28/2009, Hiva Oa, Marquesas

The is the forbidding bay by the town, with little shelter and no facilities. Just a wall to keep you in the surf.

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Kim Corson
06/28/2009, Hiva Oa, Marquesas

So I took refuge in the only tomb I could find with a canopy top until the rain stoped. Thank you, Moriua, for letting me put your tomb to further good use. See my Gauguin tomb photograph to see this tomb in the background. I was rained out. It is one way to get me out of a grave yard.

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Kimball Corson
06/28/2009, Hiva Oa, Marquesas

No name, but its own actual live flowers. Not artificial and not dead, but living flowers for a dead person, whose name I could not find on this tombstone.

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